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在过去的一年中，黄金“黯然失色”，全年暴跌近三成，创下1981年以来最大年度跌幅，持续12年的大牛市就此终结。在去年4月与华尔街投行一战成名的“中国大妈”很受伤，最多损失高达30%以上。与此同时，黄金基金的投资者也大呼“坑爹”。
进入2014年以后，黄金市场开局一改“熊”样，金价节节升高。这究竟是牛市先兆还是昙花一现?农历马年在即，“中国大妈”能否“马上”解套呢?在预测黄金市场如何谱写今年走势之前，回顾分析2013年市场表现,也显得尤为必要。
国际大环境改变导致金价暴跌
回顾2013年黄金市场，可以分为四个阶段。第一阶段是1月到3月，国际金价开始缓慢下跌，但整体跌幅近5%，大多数投资者在这个阶段的观望心理开始逐渐加重。第二阶段是4月到6月，金价从每盎司1597.68美元重挫至1234.07美元，黄金“飞流直下三千尺”，整个二季度成为全年跌幅最大的阶段。第三阶段是7月到8月，金价从每盎司1233.46美元反弹至1394.73美元。很多投资者加入到做多黄金队伍中，支撑了这轮去年唯一一波像样的反弹。第四阶段是从9月份开始到2013年年末，金价从1393.50美元下挫至1197美元附近。
市场大多认为，美联储缩减量化宽松规模是导致2013年金价大跌的主要因素。2013年，美国经济状况已经出现较大改善，申领失业金人数持续下降，就业岗位保持稳步增长;同时通胀水平保持稳定。这为美联储退出QE提供了支撑，也给金价带来巨大的下行压力。
与此同时，美国经济持续复苏也令风险资产受益。“美股在2013年年末再创历史新高，全年涨幅创16年之最。股市持续上涨，促使黄金市场资金继续外流进入股市。”有业内人士分析称。
在黄金实物需求方面，作为重要的需求方，全球多家央行也减缓了购入黄金的步伐。最新数据表明，全球央行2013年全年可能将黄金购买规模减少34%，在金价波动的背景下放缓了黄金消费步伐。
2014年机构观点不尽一致
进入2014年，国际金价一改“熊”样，实现“开门红”。数据显示，纽约黄金价格已经连续两周收阳。在这波小幅反弹之后，短期看好黄金的业内分析人员开始躲起来。
有国外贵金属交易员表示，随着中国传统新年的到来，预计2月之前黄金市场的整体氛围偏向乐观。“此前黄金市场曾存在大量的空头头寸，目前部分空头已提前平仓。同时由于中国新年将刺激实物金需求走强，因此在这段期间空头会格外谨慎。”
而展望全年，国内外机构观点不尽一致。巴克莱银行6日认为，预计2014年黄金均价为每盎司1310美元，并且黄金价格不会进一步走高。
国内机构相对更为乐观。鑫圣贵金属xs9999hk.com认为，黄金将会在2014年结束颓势，实现华丽转身。首先，美联储如何实现量化宽松政策的完全退出，将是2014年黄金市场的主旋律。随着量化宽松政策逐步退出，市场最大利空因素逐渐解除。其次，全球经济改善，将会带来新的通胀预期，美国、欧元区、日本以及其他众多新兴发展国家都将牵涉其中。再次，资金有望回流贵金属市场，适逢年初，各大基金再次布局。
不过，从诸如高盛、摩根大通等大机构的预测中可以看出，2014年仍然将是黄金非常困难的一年。高盛认为今年金价会下跌至少15%，摩根大通则将其对金价2014年的预测调低10%到每盎司1263美元。
" Chinese Mother " can " immediately" loosened gold
In the past year , the gold " eclipsed " , the annual fall refrain , marking the largest annual decline since 1981 , continuing a 12-year bull market to an end. In April last year, the Wall Street investment bank with a fame of " Chinese Mother " very hurt , loss of up to a maximum of 30% or more . Meanwhile, gold fund investors also shouted "pit father ."
After entering 2014 , a change in the gold market start " Bear" like gold steadily increased. Whether it is a bull or a harbinger of a short-lived ? Lunar Year of the Horse soon, " Chinese Mother " can " immediately" get out of trouble it? Before predict how the gold market trend and write this , retrospective analysis of 2013 market performance , it is especially necessary .
International environmental changes cause the price to fall
Review of 2013 gold market can be divided into four stages. The first stage is January to March , the international price of gold began a slow decline , but the overall decline of nearly 5% , most investors wait and see at this stage of psychological began to increase. The second stage is from April to June , the price of gold fell from $ 1,597.68 to $ 1,234.07 an ounce , gold " waterfalls three thousand feet ," the entire second quarter to become the largest annual decline stage . The third stage is from July to August , the price of gold rebounded from $ 1,233.46 to $ 1,394.73 an ounce . Many investors do more gold added to the team, to support the wave of this round of last year the only decent rebound . The fourth stage is from the beginning to the end of September 2013 , the gold price fell from $ 1,393.50 to around $ 1197.
Most of the market that the Fed reduced the scale of quantitative easing is a major factor leading to the gold price fell in 2013 . 2013 , the U.S. economy has seen a greater improvement in jobless claims continued to decline , jobs grew steadily ; while inflation remained stable. This provides support for the Fed's exit QE, but also to the enormous downward pressure on the price of gold .
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover also makes risky assets benefit. " U.S. stocks hit a record high at the end of 2013 , 16-year annual increase most . Stocks continued to rise , prompting the gold market continued outflow of funds into the stock market ." Insiders analysts said .
In terms of physical demand for gold as an important demand side , the world's central banks have slowed the pace of the purchase of gold. The latest data show that global central banks in 2013 will be reduced by 34% a year may scale gold purchases slowed down the pace of spending in the gold price fluctuations in the background.
2014 agency views are not consistent
Into 2014 , the international price of gold changed the "bear " -like , to achieve "good start ." Data show that gold prices have been in New York for two consecutive weeks to close positive . After this wave slight rebound in the short term bullish on gold industry analysts began to hide.
There are foreign precious metals trader said that with the arrival of the traditional Chinese New Year , the overall atmosphere is expected before February gold market optimism bias . "Prior to the existence of the gold market has a large number of short positions , there have been some short positions ahead of the same time due to the Chinese New Year will stimulate strong demand for physical gold , so in the short period would be particularly cautious ."
The full-year outlook , domestic and foreign institutions are not consistent point of view . Barclays believes the 6th , 2014, $ 1,310 per ounce gold price and the gold price will not rise further .
Domestic institutions relatively more optimistic. Xin St. precious metals believe that gold will end the decline in 2014 , to achieve magnificent turn . First of all, how to achieve the Fed 's quantitative easing policy completely withdraw , will be the main theme of the gold market in 2014 . With thewww.xs9999hk.comphasing out of quantitative easing , the market is the biggest negative factors gradually lifted. Second, the global economy improves , it will bring new inflation expectations , the U.S., euro area, Japan and many other emerging and developing countries will be involved . Again, funding is expected to reflow the precious metals market , coincides with the beginning of the major fund layout again.
However, from the forecast , such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and other large institutions can be seen in 2014 will still be a very difficult year for gold . Goldman Sachs believes that gold prices will fall this year, at least 15% , JP Morgan Chase its forecast for the gold price will be reduced by 10% in 2014 to $ 1,263 an ounce .
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发表于 2024-10-16 05:23:00